Fauci sees high vaccination rate, possible low infections by summer 

Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, explains his coronavirus forecast in a National Press Club online interview. Photo:Christy Bowe

Anthony Fauci, the nation's top authority on the coronavirus pandemic, said Tuesday that Covid-19 could be under control by summer if Americans keep taking precautions and get vaccinated. 

The rate of infection has "plateaued," said Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and now President Biden's chief medical adviser, in a National Press Club virtual Headliners event. 

There has been a surge of cases in some states, Fauci acknowledged. "Several of the states are pulling back on mask mandates. They're pulling back on restrictions on capacity in restaurants and bars, he said. "It is premature to declare a victory. We've got to continue and hang in there a bit longer by continuing the public health measures."

Club President Lisa Nicole Matthews asked Fauci about young people, who are reported to be contributing to the rise in covid ccases. 

"Even though it is less likely that they will have a severe outcome, we're seeing more and more young people get in serious trouble -- namely, severe disease requiring hospitalization and occasionally even tragic deaths in quite young people," he said. 

"So there are a couple of reasons why younger people should get vaccinated. One of them -- as well as (they) should not just feel that they're invulnerable, and go out not wearing masks and going to the kind of congregating you sometimes see, where people are crowded in bars or wherever -- is that one, you want to protect yourself."

"But importantly, you have a societal responsibility. Because even if you get infected and don't get seriously ill, you are still propagating this outbreak. Because by getting infected, even if you get no symptoms, it is very conceivable -- if not likely -- that you'll infect someone else who will then infect someone else." 

One-third to 40 percent of the people who are infected have no symptoms Fauci said, and 50 to 60 percent of transmissions are from people with no symptoms. 

As people begin to think about summer vacations, Fauci said, "Right now, with this level of infection in the community, we should probably try to avoid travel if we possibly can ... up until we get a substantial proportion, a majority at least, of people vaccinated and the level of infection goes very, very low."

That could be by summer, he said, if trends continue, people wear masks and three to four million people a day continue to be vaccinated. 

Fauci's prediction: "I think that by the time we get to people wanting to travel in the summer, we will be much better off than we are today."